Variance plays a large part in the game of poker. Most of us regular players know this, but most players are unable to understand just how incredibly large and long the swings can be.
Dario Minieri is a young Italian poker pro who plays heads-up SNGs on Pokerstars - and he plays a lot of poker.
Late in 2007 he became one of only three players to claim the top VIP club offering - a Porsche from FPP points, but more interesting is his earnings and his huge swings: a 4000 game $250.000 downswing and a 3500 game $600.000 upswing!!
To have a losing streak for 4000 heads up games would normally be considered more then enough to peg the player as a "losing poker player". The variance in heads-up SNGs is a lot less then in any other form of poker, due to there only being two possible results, compared to multiple-to-endless in other formats. Dario Minieri seemingly didn't get that memo.
Grizlason January 27 2008 11:36:46
a 4000 games long bad run is pretty scary, but plausible imo. The truth is that you can throw all the math in the world at this problem and at the end of the day you still dont have a satisfactory answer to questions like, "when will this bad run stop?" or "am I really a winning player?"
My guess is, that most players who think they are winning players are merely playing at break-even but going through an upswing.
Vesteron January 27 2008 12:10:59
I am quiet sure i would not last to play 4000 bad run...
Its amazing that he didnt stop before he came down to 50.000
Norlanderon April 30 2008 01:01:45
I'm starting to know how he felt. Not that I have had 3000 bad tourneys yet, but...
