The US Presidential Election
Posted by Norlander on November 02 2008 13:56:01
The US presidential election is now 2 days away. It has already become the most expensive election in history, including the primaries more then $1000000000 has been spent trying to win this office.
With 2 days to go Obama leads McCain 50.4 to 43.9 on pollster.com's composite tracking, and it looks like we're two days away from a historic victory. The other meta-polling site, fivethirtyeight.com, has weighed the different polls to come up with a 52.2% to 46.6% lead in Obama's favor.
Since the US election is decided state by state, and with Obama leading in several key states, they rate his odds of winning this thing at 96.2% - talk about hubris (or Truman v Dewey for those of you who are political junkies).
One big caveat in all of this. The polling models used to get these numbers all assume a huge Democratic turnout. The Democrats have registered millions of new votes this election cycle, and if those new 18-35 year old votes actually show up Obama has won... BUT if the turnout is similar to past elections then McCain is actually to favored win this thing.
Exciting few days indeed.
Extended News
The US presidential election is now 2 days away. It has already become the most expensive election in history, including the primaries more then $1000000000 has been spent trying to win this office.
With 2 days to go Obama leads McCain 50.4 to 43.9 on pollster.com's composite tracking, and it looks like we're two days away from a historic victory. The other meta-polling site, fivethirtyeight.com, has weighed the different polls to come up with a 52.2% to 46.6% lead in Obama's favor.
Since the US election is decided state by state, and with Obama leading in several key states, they rate his odds of winning this thing at 96.2% - talk about hubris (or Truman v Dewey for those of you who are political junkies).
One big caveat in all of this. The polling models used to get these numbers all assume a huge Democratic turnout. The Democrats have registered millions of new votes this election cycle, and if those new 18-35 year old votes actually show up Obama has won... BUT if the turnout is similar to past elections then McCain is actually to favored win this thing.
Exciting few days indeed.